Let MONEY Do The Jobs, Not You Or Me

Investment strategy as on 06/04/2010

2010-04-06T21:07:00.000+08:00

PSMALLCAP RM 67,900.00
PIBF RM 11,200.00
PAUEF RM 10,700.00
PFEBF RM 5,177.00
PIEF RM 6,999.00
PSF RM 6,300.00
PNREF RM 2,900.00

on 10/03/2010 and 23/03/2010, i switched out all my PIBOND to the PSMALLCAP again.
Upto now, my decision seems to be correct.
I think the stock market still in the raise trend.
Therefore, i decide to do so. One of the factor i finally decided to switch from conservative fund to aggressive fund,
is because i read from "The Business Weekly" dated 22/02/2010. The article about FAQ with Warren Buffett and Bill Gates.

During the conversation, Warren Buffett do informed that, in his history of investment, the most up trend has been seen
was on 1954, the Dow Jones Index raised about 50%. However, during that year, it was still in the recession circle.
Unemployment rate is the highest on Sep 1954. The recession started from July 1953.

The lesson i learned is: don't predict the trend.

Investment strategy as on 26/02/2010

2010-02-26T08:58:00.002+08:00

PIBOND RM 75,590.00
PIBF RM 10,799.00
PFEBF RM 4,886.00
PIEF RM 4,742.00
PSF RM 5,927.00
PNREF RM 2,390.00

On 27/01/2010, i switched out all of my Smallcap fund to Islamic Bond fund. During that time Smallcap price is RM 0.7697. I switch due to some reasons:
1. KLCI is high.
2. PER average is high.
3. Market down for few days already.

After switch out to Islamic Bond, the Smallcap price as on 24/02/2010, is up until RM 0.7973, which is higher than the price that i switch out.

Is it wrong decision i make during that time? I start thinking.
After i did some analysis, here are my findings:
1. Whenever you feel not safe, that is the time to switch out. It is not wrong.
2. Once you switch out, and one you notice the price is up, and you switch in again, then it is consider wrong. Because you switch out with low price and switch in with high price.
3. One you switch out, you must wait until the price is lower than the price you switch out. Then only can consider switch in or not. Then you will never lose.

Investment strategy as on 12/02/2010

2010-02-12T08:53:00.001+08:00

PIBOND RM 75,450.00
PIBF RM 10,600.00
PFEBF RM 4,600.00
PIEF RM 4,600.00
PSF RM 5,700.00
PNREF RM 2,300.00

My investment value has been increase little bit.
Currently, still majority of my money investment bond fund. That is almost 70.0% of my total investment value..

I still observe the market closely. However, my investment strategy is: limited switching only..
Therefore, i won't do the switching recently even the market is shutting up..
One of the reason is: the PE ratio for KLCI still consider high (16.05), and overall 10 years PE ratio average is 16.63.. just slightly lower then the average.. so it is not good enough for me.
Another reason is: KLCI now is around 1,240.. still consider a bit high..

However, closely monitor is needed.

My existing investment portfolio

2010-02-10T17:42:00.000+08:00

Existing investment portfolio:
PIBOND RM 75,000.00
PIBF RM 10,500.00
PFEBF RM 4,600.00
PIEF RM 4,580.00
PSF RM 5,700.00
PNREF RM 2,300.00

My investment strategy used:
Regular investment + limited switching
I will do regular investment (DDI) for PNREF and PFEBF.
PSF is just for saving / backup purpose. won't do anything.
PIEF and PIBF is EPF scheme. Will do regular EPF investment to PIEF, once the earning is attractive, i will do switching to PIBF. I choose PIBF, is becuase Balance fund give free insurance.
PIBOND is my main focus. Once the market is low enough (around 1000 to 1100 pts) i will switch 1/3 to PSMALLCAP or PEF. However, when need to do switching, is subjective and depends on personal opinion.

The Bear is BACK!!

2010-02-09T23:12:00.003+08:00

Index of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI showed 1308.36 on 21/01/2010. It was the highest in the early of 2010 (upto today: 09/02/2010). After this "highest" point, it went down and down..

29/01/2010, KLCI dropped to 1259.16 pt. As today (08/02/2010), index dropped again to 1235.22. If next week continue to down trend, it is possible to break 1200 below.

Last week, i already switch all my small capital fund to bond fund for parking purposes, to avoid more loss if market continuous down.

I switched Small Cap, Alpha 30 and China Select Fund to bond fund. However, i still have saving, national resources fund, islamic equity fund and islamic balance fund.

My comments on switching is: don't do it so frequently until the focus is out. Two or Three switching per year is the limit. More than that will end up with loss.

Now is the time to save bullet, to get ready for the next bull appear.

常见的问题：如果手中持有Company A债券，万一Company A倒闭了，那是不是等于投资全亏了？

2010-01-21T10:48:00.003+08:00

如果投资者持有Company A 的债卷，万一Company A 倒闭，投资者的债卷就没价值了。
这是对的。。

无论如何，这种情形只会发生在投资者自己去买债卷（就像自己买股票一样），而非通过信托公司。。

通过大众信托买的大众债卷基金，就不尽相同。。
相等于我们把钱交给大众，让他们为我们买债卷，所以叫债卷基金。。
而整个大众信托投资部会选择CBR （Corporate Bond Rate）AAA 以上的公司投资。。
也就是说，这些公司的背景已经过详细调查，是有能力赚钱和还请债务的。。
所以投资者大可放心。。

基金介绍：PBOND 和 PIBOND

2010-01-21T10:43:00.001+08:00

如果投资者年龄较大。。除非有很好的月收入，
要不然，不适合股票型基金。我会介绍债券型基金（Bond Fund）。。

因为债券基金和股票型基金的投资策略完全不同。。
债券型基金不把资金投资在股票市场，而是债券市场（一间公司Company A要发展业务，需要到资金，除了跟银行借贷之外，也可以发行“债券”。。比如说：Company A债券，投资者以RM10,000买一张为期十年的Company A债券，所以Company A会每年偿还投资者RM1,070的酬劳。。到了十年，投资者就会得到RM10,700的总回酬，也就是7%。以此风险是极为低的，同样道理，风险低，自然利润就低）
过往的表现，可以明确的证明，还是会比银行定期高。。

所有类型基金都能按月加码，债卷型基金也不例外。。只不过由于债卷型基金的波动幅度不大。。按月投资看不到显著效果。。而且，因为近乎没风险的关系，通常鼓励一次性投资。。

常见的问题：有关风险的问题。。

2010-01-21T10:41:00.001+08:00

如果想在5年内赚小笔钱是要投资高风险的吗？高风险是说会亏到赔钱吗？风险越高投资的资金就要多吗？

投资界里的铁则：风险高，利润高。。
亏到会赔钱是不会的。。在马来西亚的信托基金投资历史上没发生过这样的事啦。。
由于基金的架构，不会有这么不幸的事件发生。。
如果说基金要赔钱，就相等与银行倒闭。以我国目前的局势来看，不太可能发生，您说对吧。。

风险高，意思是说，投资公司把大多数的基金，投资在有风险成分的股票上。所谓风险成分股，大多数指成长股。。所以这类股票被炒作的机会也相应的提高。。当然，回筹率也提高了。。

资金的多寡，和基金的风险没有关系。。就算RM1000，也可投资在风险较高的基金。。

五年内赚小钱，完全没有问题。。要看您所谓的小钱。。是要多少巴仙回筹。。

常见的问题：保险的投资跟基金投资是一样的吗？

2010-01-21T10:40:00.000+08:00

不太一样。。保险业所推出的基金，我们称之为investment link，或投资挂钩保险。
也就是说，您在还保费的当儿，也做了基金投资的动作。。比如说您的保费每月RM100，
那么，在头几年七八十巴仙的钱是保费用途。。而剩余的一点点儿拿来做投资。。可能只有十几二十而已。。
一年过去，也只有一两百而已。。就算基金表现再好。。由于本金太少（capital），所以也于事无补。。
所以，最好的方法是：买一份传统保险+一份信托基金。。不要2合1的配套如investment link这类的投资产品。。
因为，保险合投资是两件不同的事，加在一起，很难发挥超强的效力。分开来做，就能互惠互利。

基金介绍：PSF

2010-01-21T10:35:00.001+08:00

我推荐投资大众信托的元老级基金，
Public Saving Fund （大众储蓄基金）。

拥有29年的投资历史，基金投资方针已经成熟。可谓见过大风大浪，是重量级基金，
再加上投资者用每两个月的成本均平法投资。绝对能帮你做到投资+储蓄的目的。

常见的问题：信托基金的收费是如何计算的？

2010-01-21T10:34:00.001+08:00

服务费是投资额的5.5%。也就是说如果您投资RM1000，服务费为RM55。
至于其他的如：管理费，信托费，是在每天基金结账是就算进去了的。
也就是说您从报章上看到的价钱是已经扣好了的。

是投资，不是投机

2010-01-21T10:02:00.002+08:00

投资和投机，其中一项很明显的差别，就在于心态上的建设。。

如果您面对一项有回筹的商业产品（不管是生意，股票，信托基金，债卷），您认为：“哎呀~，不管是什么啦。。赚一笔就走人。”。那么，恭喜您，您在做的动作，就叫投机。。

如果您面对一项有回筹的商业产品（不管是生意，股票，信托基金，债卷），您认为：“目前还没赚钱不要紧，这是一门赚钱的生意。我有绝对的信心！”。那么，也恭喜您，您在做的动作，就叫投资。。

投机者，普遍上，喜欢速战速决，大刀阔斧，容易铤而走险。。
投资者，普遍上，以保本为重，稳打稳扎，水到渠成。。

我一直强调，是投资，不是投机。。所以，赚快钱的事，就不再讨论范围内。。

既然是投资，当然又分为短期，中期，和长期投资。。
短期，期限设在3年。。
中期，期限设在5年。。
长期，期限设在5年以上，有10年，15年，20年或更长。。

再来就是您说的Planning。。计划。
通常，投资计划多指以下3种：
1. 退休计划（Retirement Planning）
2. 教育计划（Education Planning）
3. 房屋计划（Home Ownership Planning）

以退休计划来简单的说一下。。比如说您想在退休（55岁）之后，能享有目前的生活模式（living Style），
不把通货膨胀算进去，银行定期率假设还是2.5%：那么， 55岁之后，每个月RM2000 的生活费应该是足够的。。
以每月RM2000来算，那么一年要有RM24,000。。
如果这RM24,000从定期来的话。。那么我们需要有RM一百万，放在银行做2.5%的定期。。算法如下：

RM1,000,000 x 2.5% = RM 25,000
每月为 RM 25,000 / 12 = RM 2,083.33

所以，一百万就是退休计划的目标（因人而异，以上只是例子，根据需求有可能更高）。。
我们会帮顾客做一个完整的计算，看看您目前的cash flow, debt, asset, EPF 和 investment 能不能达到您的退休计划目标，
从而算出您的投资计划的钱额是多少。。

权威或龙头业销售人员的迷思

2009-12-24T22:10:00.002+08:00

很多销售人员喜欢在Sales Presentation的时候，踩低别间公司，好让自身的公司更为突出。这是销售人员（尤其是当他们的公司是区域的权威或龙头时）最容易陷入的迷思。太常把过去的表现挂在嘴边，而且只挑好的讲（当然，如果卖花不赞花香，那也不用卖花了）。
不管客户问什么问题，都永远只有一个答案：“我们公司的xx基金表现那么好，不用担心！！”

一味的用自身的强势来压人，不是一套好的销售方法。。

基金排行榜

2009-12-24T21:16:00.000+08:00

不同公司的基金，就好比江湖中不同门派的武功一样。。
此起彼落，今天你赢我一尺，明天我赢你一丈。。属于良性竞争。

排行榜就像兵器谱一般。。
今天你本事，你就在榜上站一席位。。
明天你失手，你就好让一让位。。

至于喜欢哪种，就青菜萝卜，各有所好。。

常问的问题：信托基金的名称

2009-12-12T22:48:00.000+08:00

信托，英文是 Mutual 或 Trust。
基金，英文是 Fund。

信托基金，在美国普遍上称之为 Mutual Fund。
而在英国和我国马来西亚，普遍上称之为 Unit Trust, 马来语叫 Amanah Saham。

常见的问题：基金如果跌时，会不会把capital也亏掉？

2009-12-11T19:11:00.004+08:00

如果基金还没卖掉，技术用语上，我们称之为“浮亏”（paper lost）。也就是说，还没卖掉，就还没实实在在的“亏掉”。
在基金投资的初期阶段，我们只有本金（capital）用来投资，没有利润和分红。因此，由于价钱有上上下下的波动，会照成我们的本金起落。属于正常现象。

到了中长期阶段，由于分红或利润的增加，价钱的起落而影响到 capital 的机会可说是微乎其微。

了解循环型（Cyclical）和防御型（Defensive）的经济领域

2009-11-22T13:30:00.002+08:00

在国家经济发展里，我们会看到不同的经济领域：有消费，电讯，建筑，酒店，医疗等等。
这些领域其实是有区别的，其中，可以分为两大类：循环型（Cyclical）和防御型（Defensive）。

循环型的经济领域，是有周期性的。也就是说，在某段周期里，它的发展是蓬勃的。之后，就会陷入衰退和停滞不前。再之后，由于市场需求，又会开始复苏，然后又蓬勃发展。这样的程序会一直重复，就是循环型经济。
循环型经济，包刮：Energy （能源）, Consumer Discretionary （非必须消费产品）, Industrial （工业）, information Technology (资讯), Materials (原料), Financial (金融)

防御型的经济领域，是没有周期性的，也就是说，不管经济好或坏，它都有它的市场价值。最经典的，就是医疗领域。不管经济好不好，人们有没有钱，它都不受音响。
有钱人会生病，没钱人也会生病。这是必然的。
防御型经济，包刮：Healthcare （医疗保健）, Consumer Staples （必须消防产品）, Utilities （公共设施）, Telecommunication Services （电讯服务）。

2009-11-22T09:15:00.004+08:00

2009年经济，国内生产总额 (GDP)，为负成长（-3.2%），明年预测是正成长（3.5%）。
也就是说经济正处于复苏当中。
Per Capita Income 是大马人平均年收入。以2009年来说，RM24,711 / 12 = RM2,059.25。
也就是说，如果您的薪金低于RM2,059.25，您就是低收入群。
如果您的薪金高于RM2,059.25，您就是高收入群。
Inflation Rate 说明我国现在处于 deflation period，通货萎缩，也就是说，钱币在市面的流动缓慢，消费量低。
Fixed Deposit 的利率也降低到2.5%。

The truth about High Yield Investment Programs (HYIP)

2009-10-04T23:51:00.003+08:00

This is the article taken from http://www.mfa.org.my/business-articles/v.php?the-truth-about-high-yield-investment-programs-hyip-like-swisscash:majalah-com-magazine;1145-070619a

A High Yield Investment Program (HYIP), is normally offered via the Internet. HYIPs typically accept deposits anything from $10 to $1000 and promise high returns e.g. 2% everyday for 100 days.

Are They Legal?

Majority of HYIPs are illegal. They are "Ponzi Schemes" disguising under various real business terms like Forex, Futures, Bond, Hedge Fund, Currency Arbitrage, Nasdaq, Dow Jones etc. They usually have no license from the official authority to collect funds.

When asked, they usually pretend that their schemes are approved by governments in other countries or "pending for approval" by the local government (very soon) or subjected under different rules depending on the business terms they use to disguise their activities.

Some of the popular HYIP schemes are:-

Swisscash
ABBFund
EAINDEX
And hundreds more here and here

Note: Not all HYIPs are illegal. However the vast majority of them are very suspicious. They are very smart in hiding their activities behind real business sectors. Many would invest a tiny amount of money in the real business just to "prove" that they are legitimate traders.

What is a Ponzi Scheme?

Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that promises high return (profit) for the investors. The truth is, the "profit" actually comes from:-

Money from newer investors
Your own money in the scheme (which they are sure will not be withdrawn by you anytime soon).

They never profited in investments in Forex/Futures/Hedge Fund/Bond or other fancy financial terms.

The reason they choose these terms is because they are difficult business sectors which will take an average persons many years to become an expert. Even expert investors (like Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway or George Soros) sometimes lose money in several trades because of unexpected risks or volatile market sentiment.

However, HYIP offers a high percentage return regardless of the market condition. This is achievable because the money comes directly from the pockets of newer investors, not from "Forex Trading".

The difficulties in mastering these fields will make sure an average Joe will not delve deeper into the subject and will invest his money for the scheme owner to "manage".

If a reputable audit firm were to calculate the money invested by ALL investors and the profit, it is only enough to pay the first 40%-50% investors. The rest will need to pray for the following:-

No negative news in the press e.g. the owner of the scheme is caught by the police for illegal money laundering.
(Most schemes do not have permits to collect fund from the public)
No bad news means earlier investors will not withdraw ALL their funds. They may sometimes withdraw just the "Profit".
More people joining the scheme after hearing the "success stories" from earlier investors

When they could no longer trick newer investors into giving them money, the scheme collapses.

What is the major difference between a Ponzi and a Pyramid scheme?

Pyramid scheme requires you to find new "downlines" i.e. newer members to be placed under your account. Ponzi does not require downlines. However, you are encouraged to tell your "success story" and attract new members and refer him/her to the owner of the scheme.
Pyramid scheme usually hide behind exotic products like "age defying vitamins", "foot toxin extractor", "wild honey with amazing curing power" etc. Ponzi scheme hides behind "services" like Forex Trading or Hedge Fund where there is no physical products need to be delivered from manufacturers to the consumers.

HYIP scheme rarely last long. However, some newer HYIP with stronger "brand" last longer than usual.

Before the era of Internet, the spread of the HYIP is by word of mouth and by physical mail. All new investors are limited by physical boundaries (countries) where they usually pay a visit to the scheme owner to "verify its legitimacy". However for majority of the people, "legitimacy" simply means the owner is there smiling & shake hand with them in his office.

Nobody took the effort to verify with the authority of the legitimacy of the scheme. The "legitimacy" will be further enhanced if the scheme owner have a luxury car or wear expensive jewelry or watch.

Now however, the "success stories" can be propagated much faster, by email, websites, online forums and blogs. "Legitimacy" is calculated based on how professional the scheme`s website looks and how many "success stories" found in the internet.

基金介绍：Invest in PSA30F as ETF

2009-09-23T22:29:00.005+08:00

PSA30F (Public Select Alpha 30 Fund)is one of my favorite fund, although, it doesn't have much trade history (started launch at end of April 2009).

This is a very special unit trust fund launch by PMB (Public Mutual Berhad), even from UTMC (Unit Trust Management Company). because one of the advantages in Unit Trust business is the "diversification".

However, PSA30F only choose 30 companies to invest. Therefore, it has the same characteristic as ETF (Extended Trade Fund). In the other hand, by just invest 30 companies, risk will increase if compare with other funds.

I believe that, PSA30F is the first fund that PMB launching to achieve the same goal as ETF. At the same time, it maintain the characteristic as other PMB funds as well.

Manage Your Debt

2009-08-23T11:59:00.001+08:00

None of us can avoid from debt. Due to more and more financial product today. we will very easy to get involve in debts: buying our own home, car, study loan, business loan, product and etc.

So, if we can manage our debt well, reduce it to minimum, means that we are winning in another way.

Here are some tactics we can use when dealing with debt.

View all of our monthly payments as a single large payment - Group all financial obligations and calculate the whole amount that need to pay for every month. Then allocate a budget to pay the whole lung sum payment. Make sure to pay the same amount each month. It will minimize the delay and short off budget issues.
Bear in mind that, some loans are only subject to minimum payments. So we must always try and pay as much as possible on the smallest loan. It will solve the debt snowball issues. If we keep on doing like that, it will effectively help to reduce the number of outstanding debts.
Instead of focusing most priority of the debt with lowest balance, we may also consider paying off the highest interest rate loan. It will help save money in long run. Don't forget that, debt will grow at rapid rate if not pay for too long.
We must compare loan to get the lowest interest rate - This will help to reduce the overall interest paid and shorten the loan tenure.
Don't ever agree to act as guarantor for someone unless you havell all the ready cash needed to repay that loan if he or she defaults.

Part Time Consultant VS Full Time Consultant

2009-08-22T01:14:00.001+08:00

I am a part time UTC (Unit Trust Consultant), and proud as a part timer.

Why? why you choose part time UTC?
1. Part time UTC got their own full time job that provided main income to them. therefore, rushing for the sales target is not their concerns. For full timer, the only income is from sales. No sales, no income. Therefore, they will push more sales if compare than part timer.
2. Part time UTC like to share their experience and interest rather than just pushing the sales. Full time UTC like have to close more sales rather then just sharing their experience. Therefore, part timer more rational if compare with full time UTC.

Rules of 72

2009-08-20T10:55:00.002+08:00

In all kind of investment business, we all talk about "Compile Interest".
For Compile Interest, the most popular calculation method is "Rules of 72".

"Rules of 72" widely use for:
1. How long (years) you can double up your money with certain interest?
2. How much interest (%) we need to have if we want to double up our money is specific years?

The formula is quite simple:

1. [years] = [interest] / 72

2. [interest] = [years] / 72

Few examples here:
1. I have an investment that will generate 3% per annual, it take how many years double up my RM10,000 to RM20,000?
ans: Very simple, just use the above formula: 72/3 = 24 years. It take 24 years to double up my money.

2. I have an investment that will generate 8% per annual, it take how long to double up my RM1 Mil to RM2 Mil?
ans: 72/8 = 9 years. It take 9 yeas to become RM2 Mil.

3. I have an investment that will generate 24% per annual, it take how long to double up my RM5,000 to RM10,000?
ans: 72/24 = 3 years. It take 3 years to double up my investment.

4. I have RM7,000 in my hand, how many % interest per annual that i need to have to increase my money to RM14,000 in 10 years?
ans: 72/10 = 7.2%. I need at least 7.2% interest per annual to double my money in 10 years.

Just remember that already put 72 at the bottom of the formula.

Unit Trust - Powerful Investment Vehicle

2009-08-20T01:19:00.001+08:00

One of the very powerful investment vehicle that we use to increase our saving is Unit Trust / Mutual Fund.

Why Unit Trust?
1. Less monitoring needed if compare with those very high risk investment, such as Stock Market, Currency Exchange, Future & Option.

2. Ease of transaction if compare with invest in property.

3. Diversification - spreading risk over a broad portfolio of stocks and bonds in different companies, sectors, countries and regions.

4. Liquidity - Investors able to get their return within 10 days.